RECORD PRICES CANNOT MASK THAT NOT ALL THAT GLITTERS IS GOLD IN BRITISH AND IRISH JUMPS MARKET

The year began with a new record price for a jumps horse-in-training when Grade 1-winning hurdler Caldwell Potter sold to Anthony Bromley of Highflyer Bloodstock for €740,000 during the dispersal of stock that belonged to Andy and Gemma Brown. Legendary Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson was among the ownership group involved in the purchase, which took place at Tattersalls Ireland in early February.

By the end of July that record had already fallen when the promising bumper scorer Regent’s Stroll was knocked down to Tom Malone and Paul Nicholls at £660,000 at the Goffs UK Summer Sale in Doncaster. The son of Walk in the Park was offered on account of another significant owner, Chris Giles, stepping away from the sport. Sir Alex was again involved in the group behind the latest record purchase.

And the record was smashed for a third time within the space of eight months when British-based owner Lady Bamford spent €1.4 million through Highflyer Bloodstock on Palladium at the Arqana Arc Sale. The German Derby winner has been sent into training with Nicky Henderson and is set to test his mettle over hurdles before potentially finding a place at stud once his racing days draw to a close.

Spending these sorts of colossal sums on jumps horses would have been almost unimaginable in the not too distant past. But the frequency with which the record has been broken in 2024 further highlights the shift that has taken place in the National Hunt marketplace.

Wealthy owners are increasingly prepared to take on greater financial risk when the perceived risk of their investment is lessened. That is to say, when a horse’s profile boasts pedigree, physique and, most importantly, a combination of proven form and racing potential, the sky’s the limit when it comes to what buyers are prepared to pay.

This market trend has also been witnessed in the point-to-point sphere in recent times, with significant six-figure sums now commonplace. The Tattersalls Cheltenham Festival Sale produced the biggest price in 2024, with Ballycahane maiden winner Echoing Silence bringing £410,000 from Rathmore Stud. The French bred seven-time Grade 1 winner Jonbon is very much the poster boy of the pricey point-to-point graduates, having cost J.P. McManus £570,000 back in 2020.

Some would argue that the growing appetite for these sort of readymade runners merely reflects the outlook of an instant gratification society. When almost anything can be bought at the click of a button and delivered straight to your door, why would owners want to invest in unbroken youngstock, only to learn their purchase has below average ability or is unsound after paying two years of costs in training and keep?

And with the costs associated with owning racehorses continuing to rise, it seems perfectly reasonable that owners want action sooner rather than later. And what’s the harm in that?

Well, the monster sums being spent on the brightest and best jumps prospects stand in stark contrast to the investment being seen further down the food chain. While the boutique form-horse sale has driven a boom in prices at the head of the jumps market, it has also seen the British and Irish National Hunt breeding industry become increasingly polarised.

It should not be forgotten that the brightest and best prospects only emerge through a long and tried and tested process of breeding, raising and nurturing these embryonic equine athletes. Sustainable market dynamics have been formed over many years, but if all the moving parts of this process cease to move in sync, the wheels are at risk of coming off. 

There may be riches to be found for those young jumpers boasting pedigree, physique and, crucially, performance, but sales of young untried stock have encountered increasingly tough going in recent years. Nowhere has this been more keenly felt than the National Hunt foal sales.

Point-to-point handlers need to invest in fresh raw materials each year, which in turn has created a symbiotic relationship with the store sales. The more money they make selling point-to-pointers, the more they can reinvest in stores.

This is also creating something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, as greater numbers of stores, and greater numbers of quality stores to boot, are heading into the point-to-point system. Handlers are then applying their undoubted skill to train these youngsters to perform between the flags, which in turn is shoring up prices at the boutique sales.

And the success of point-to-point graduates is proving so strong that increasingly owners and trainers are looking to recruit in this market, rather than purchasing unbroken stores themselves. Buyers are evidently, and somewhat understandably, content to pay a premium for the greater degree of proven ability.

But the National Hunt foal sales appear to have been cut adrift from this symbiotic relationship between store sales and point-to-pointers. This has been reflected by a striking decline in trade at this level.

This was hammered home at this year’s Tattersalls Ireland November National Hunt Sale. The four-day event saw 729 jumps-bred foals offered, but only 449 found a buyer for a clearance rate of just 61.5%. At the time of writing the 2024 Goffs December National Hunt Sale was still to take place, but it would be no surprise if trade at that event largely followed suit given the challenges witnessed at Fairyhouse were entirely in keeping with the trend that has emerged in recent years.

In 2021 the Irish National Hunt foal sales between Goffs and Tattersalls Ireland saw a combined clearance rate of 71.4% as 1,086 lots sold from 1,521 offered. In 2022 that figure dropped to 68.9%, albeit an increased offering (1,642 lots) meant more foals actually changed hands (1,131). But the clearance rate fell again the following year, and this time it was not merely a statistical quirk, as 1,573 foals were offered and 998 changed hands at a clip of just 63.4%.

Moreover, the 1,131 Irish jumps foals sold in 2022 generated receipts worth €19,950,000, but spending dropped by 15 per cent the following year to €17,010,650 on 998 foals. This decline in investment has continued into 2024 as spending at the Tattersalls Ireland November National Hunt Sale fell by a further 27% year-on-year, as those 449 sold foals generated receipts of €7,467,400.

The way in which the jumps foal market is being left behind in the modern commercial National Hunt landscape is further illustrated by considering the context of its place in the wider market.

In 2021, €98.24 million was spent on 3,113 lots across all the major dedicated National Hunt sales in Britain and Ireland, comprising foals, stores and young form horses. Despite only accounting for 16.5% (513) of sold lots, 30.6% (€30.03 million) of that aggregate was spent on young form horses. By contrast, National Hunt foals accounted for 34.9% (1,086) of sold lots, but only 18.7% (€18.363m) of aggregate sales.

This disparity in price is not, in of itself, an issue. Of course not every foal will prove capable of racing, nevermind racing with success, so naturally those who are capable of showing promise on the track, either in point-to-points or on the racetrack, deserve to command a higher price. It is only right that vendors should receive more for selling a better product.

However, and somewhat alarmingly, the gap had widened even further by 2023. Both aggregate sales and the number of sold lots dipped year-on-year in 2023 as 3,207 transactions generated a not inconsiderable total of €117.96m (down 4%).

But if you dig deeper into the numbers, we see that 38.95% (€45.95m) of the spending went on young form horses, which accounted for 21.2% (681) of the thoroughbreds who changed hands. During the same 12 months, foals accounted for 33.1% of the jumps-bred horses who changed hands but were now responsible for only 15.7% (€18.5m) of the total spend. Unless Goffs can pull off something of a minor miracle, the total spent on foals looks set to be lower still in 2024.

This has to be a major concern for National Hunt breeders, particularly those operating on a relatively small scale.

These operators have a vital part to play in the jumps ecosystem, but when they bring their stock to market, they are finding it increasingly hard to cover their costs, nevermind make a profit.

While many will see breeding as a labour of love, basic economics dictates breeders will not be able to continue producing thoroughbreds at the rate required to populate the fixture list without hope of some sort of return.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this development is that there is little sign of the situation changing. It is to the point-to-point sector’s credit that it has proved so popular with National Hunt buyers, but its emergence has unintentionally destabilised the delicate ecosystem that exists further down the production chain.

In short, too much of the capital pumped into the jumps industry each year is ending up in too few hands. Invariably those hands are not involved in breeding the raw materials.

It remains to be seen whether demand at the National Hunt foal sales can be restimulated, or whether breeders will be forced to change their approach – either by cutting numbers, saving their stock for the store sales or simply shutting up shop. Whatever happens, it is clear that despite the flashy prices at the top of the British and Irish jumps market, not all that glitters is gold.

*2024 results do not include Goffs December NH Sale or Tattersalls Cheltenham December Sale.